Sunday, September 4, 2016
After two weeks games, two teams in each set of ratings are still out of place. After one week each team's rating is affected by one other team. After two weeks it is affected by three teams. After three as many as seven teams. The ratings are reliable by week five when all the teams have made a sufficient number of connections to all the other teams. From those connections we can estimate how any team stacks up against any other team. Before that, it is questionable. Also, each week is more important than the previous week because the teams are getting more experience and being refined as they learned to work together as a unit After week nine most teams don't resemble their week one selves. A losing team can become a winning team as we go through the season. So the first four weeks' ratings are not very meaningful because of those two big factors - change and connections.